Finding a New Ceiling

Credit: San Jose Earthquakes

With the season at its midpoint, a clear floor and ceiling emerge for the Quakes. After surpassing almost every expectation, Arena and his squad positioned themselves well for this second half.

The only question remaining is whether they will settle for their floor or continue exceeding expectations?

Out of the teams settling in the upper echelon of MLS contenders, the Quakes present an interesting case. They play very efficient soccer that allows them to be better as a team than individually, but that also limits their ceiling.

For their floor, they clearly present themselves as a regular-season force. Arena’s system and subs work perfectly in a regular season that demands stability over everything. The sum of their parts gives them a clear identity built around a defensive structure.

Their ceiling, however, feels dependent on too many factors to be truly confident in it. Playoff teams that tend to go deep in the playoffs can rely on a few key players with the ability to rise. The Quakes possess a good system and some interesting pieces, but ultimately, a lack of reliable star play might undo them.

As they prepare for the second half of the season, various pathways open up for Arena and the team.

Some lead to a Western Conference finals appearance, while others promise a great regular season, but a flameout in the playoffs.

Fortunately for Quakes fans, the team has already more or less reached its floor. Unlike past seasons where their floor hovered around the basement of the conference, they proved themselves as regular-season demons.

Nothing appears to slow down this Quakes team, barring that slide in May. Arena’s system perfectly takes advantage of every situation that they face. Against better opposition, they frustrate them defensively and hit on the counter; against weaker teams, they impose themselves.

The ability to dictate play in this manner against whatever opponent makes this team a great regular-season team. Without any other distractions, especially after their exit from the Open Cup, a path opens for them to perfect this version of the team. One that takes their chances against any team and collects as many points as possible.

By the end of April, they had already reached a floor that most hadn’t expected, a regular-season machine. Continuing this level of play, even with minor blips, feels realistic, especially as the pressure ramps up in the coming months.

Ending the season in one of the top three spots in the Western Conference promises to be the best gift to the fans since that 2012 season. Without the talent of most of their rivals in those spots, Arena and the team navigated themselves into an amazing position. One that gives them a chance to live up to their most basic expectations. 

Maintaining this level, one that just powers through the regular season, seems likely given how the team responded to the slide in May. The current roster makeup gives them a solid foundation to maintain these performances, even if it limits their ceiling. Perhaps the most promising sign lies in how well this team rolls with the punches, be it a slide or extended player absences.

Coming into the season, most fans and the MLS media at large saw a repeat of the past few seasons in the cards for the Quakes.

However, by finding a baseline level of competency, they have a real chance at a playoff run. 

As currently constructed, the ceiling for this team appears to be a second-round exit. Should they keep up their pace, a path towards this sort of run appears to be well in the cards.

Jostling with Vancouver for first place in the West, the Quakes are continuing to put space between themselves and the glut behind third place. These top three teams, currently sitting atop the conference, are all very similar. Given how last year’s playoffs went, they all have the chance to make a deep run. 

None of them feature a true game-breaking star; rather, they are teams built around a singular tactic, with a star to pull everything together. Out of the three, RSL, San Jose, and Vancouver, the Whitecaps possess the best team and star. The Quakes and RSL appear to be in the same tier of likely second-round exits, losing to either LAFC or Vancouver.

For a team that lacked any sort of success for over a decade, any sort of playoff run would appease this fanbase. There remain several factors that can limit this team’s ceiling in the playoffs.

One glaring issue with this roster in the postseason is the lack of experience in moments like those. Out of the usual starters, none have the necessary exposure for the tough moments that they will likely encounter. However, players need playoff experience to develop, and this trial by fire would benefit many of them.

Couple this inexperience with concerns over Timo Werner’s availability, and you get the ceiling of a second-round exit. If the path breaks correctly, especially if they capture the first seed, a run to the conference finals may be possible. No matter where they end up in the playoffs, this is a most welcome sight.

A playoff appearance offers so many positives to a team in desperate need of validation.

While an MLS Cup final appearance may be out of the cards, just bringing the playoffs back to PayPal Park would be quite a victory.

By performing well above expectations, the Quakes set themselves up well for the next half of the season. Having already more or less reached their floor, only hitting their ceiling remains for a great regular season.

Should they find a way to reach beyond their ceiling, a truly special season may be on the cards.